Albania’s real GDP will grow 4.5% in 2021, according to the Vienna Inst. for International Economic Studies – Tirana Times
New forecasts from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies for Eastern Europe suggest that Albania’s real GDP growth for 2021 will be 4.5%. This year, the strongest growth according to the report will be observed in Montenegro (6.5%), Turkey (5.8%), Serbia (5%), Kosovo (4.8%), Croatia and in Albania (4.5%). Eastern Europe’s growth is expected to be 3.8% in 2021, which is similar to the growth forecast for the euro area as well. According to the Institute’s latest report, the surge in infections in recent months will delay economic recovery in the countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, which means that “the outperformance of CESEE countries in the Western Europe will therefore not happen again this year. ”Says the deputy director and co-author of the report, explains Richard Grieveson. In 2020, in the 23 CESEE countries, the weighted average real GDP fell by 2.3%, “only a third of the decline in the euro zone over the same period”. While the aggregate contraction of 2.3% of the CESEE’s real GDP in 2020 was significantly lower than that of 2009, following the global financial crisis (-5.6%), the EU-CEEC and the Western Balkans suffered larger declines in GDP last year than in 2009.
The Institute writes that the forecast is undertaken at a time of almost unprecedented economic uncertainty, “reflecting the current high level of infections in most of Europe and the so far disappointing vaccination campaign in much of it. from the continent.” According to Grieveson, “The downside risks to our projections are significant if vaccination rates do not increase enough to overtake COVID-19 mutations.” If the virus mutates, this may be accompanied by an extension of lockdowns, which will have a direct and negative impact on the region’s economy. The report suggests that vaccination rates are a key factor in ensuring an economic recovery. In addition, the Institute predicts that all CESEE economies recover economically over the next three years, with significant pace differences.