How Trump can still beat Biden
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has led President Trump in the polls for months, and Trump continues to crumble. Bob Woodward’s new book features Trump as a two-sided quack lie to the public about the risks of the coronavirus. Congress is launching yet another coronavirus stimulus bill, leaving millions of struggling workers to sink. And a wave of rehiring has clearly slowed, with a full recovery from coronavirus layoffs not likely until 2022 or later.
Still, Trump could still pull off a second stun and beat Joe Biden. “Right now I would tell you [the winner] would be Trump, ”says Stefanie Miller, Managing Director of FiscalNote Markets, in the latest episode of the Yahoo Finance Electionomics podcast. “He really looks like he just has a slight advantage over Biden. States where it seems more secure are stronger and they have more votes in constituencies.
Many analysts believe the race will come down to six swing states: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. Miller thinks it’s important to watch a few more, including Minnesota, which leans toward Democrats, and Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Georgia, which are more Republican. A recent poll in Minnesota, for example, shows Trump and Biden are tied – a marked improvement for Trump from a few months ago. Trump remains on hand in Pennsylvania, and he could be ahead in Florida.
[Check out other episodes of the Yahoo Finance Electionomics podcast.]
Trump may lose some of the swing states that propelled him to victory in 2016, and still win in 2020, as shown in the map below. If Biden returns Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin to the Democratic column, Trump could still win if he takes Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, along with Minnesota. It would be a surprise if Biden won the other upper Midwestern states but Trump won Minnesota. Yet Minnesota was the ground zero for civil unrest after George Floyd’s murder in Minneapolis in May. Trump’s law and order mantra may explain the recent shift in his favor.
Another issue that may sway the small portion of voters who are still undecided is back-to-school policies amid the coronavirus pandemic. “One of the ways Republicans have tried to resonate with voters is by sounding much more sympathetic to working parents than Democrats, who seem much more supportive of taking precautionary measures against the spread of the virus,” Miller says. . She points out that women bear the burden of distance education and child care more than men, while hijacking female voters from Trump is a top priority for Biden. “Doing things that are useful to women, especially white women and suburban women, can have a real impact and change the dynamics at the constituency level,” Miller says.
There is a scenario in which Trump and Biden could actually match, with neither candidate achieving the 270 electoral votes needed to win, as the following map shows. Biden would win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, while Trump would win the other swing states. Two single-vote parties from Maine and Nebraska would cancel each other out, with Trump getting Maine’s vote and Biden getting Nebraska’s. In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives determines the winner – and that would likely be Trump. Democrats have a majority in the House, but Republicans control more state delegations and will likely do so in 2021 as well, which would break the tie.
Biden’s lead could of course hold, and he could win a little or a lot. Here’s what a map of a narrow Biden win might look like:
Biden can lose Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as long as he wins the upper Midwest, Arizona, and at least one of Nebraska or Maine’s two singles votes. He could also do a lot better. If Biden wins all six swing states, he could be competitive in the former Republican strongholds of Texas and Georgia. Miller even believes that normally red Iowa could be on the line, as incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst faces a slim chance for re-election. She is a staunch supporter of Trump, and if voters reject her, they could reject Trump as well. It would end a season of terrible news for Trump and bring about such a resounding defeat that no fabricated excuse could explain it.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Go From Failure To Success. »Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential advice line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here for get Rick’s stories by email.